Scenario A — Base
Rent / yr$350K
Cap Rate6.00%
Valuation$5.83M
IRR6.73%
MOIC1.42x
Spread162 bps
iProfit · iProphet
Profit intelligence. Engineered. Instrumented. Compared.
Design of Experiments comparing 4 deal scenarios side-by-side. Six Sigma quality bars per signal. Lean Six Sigma probability-of-success scoring. The same instrumentation a Formula-team uses to tune for a podium, applied to underwriting.
Design of Experiments — 4 Deal Scenarios in Parallel
Scenario B — Rent +5%
Rent / yr$367.5K
Cap Rate6.00%
Valuation$6.13M
IRR7.08%
MOIC1.51x
Spread162 bps
Scenario C — Cap +50bps
Rent / yr$350K
Cap Rate6.50%
Valuation$5.38M
IRR7.10%
MOIC1.49x
Spread212 bps
Scenario D — Treasury +25bps
Rent / yr$350K
Cap Rate6.00%
Valuation$5.83M
IRR6.48%
MOIC1.37x
Spread137 bps
Six Sigma Quality Bars — Per Signal
Signal
Quality (0-6 sigma)
Sigma
DPMO
Tenant credit grade
5.5
32
Cap rate accuracy
5.1
233
Treasury anchor freshness
5.8
8
NOI variance prediction
4.4
1350
Exit cap projection
3.7
17864
Deal close path
4.8
483
Lean Six Sigma Probability-of-Success
Pilot Conversion
0.87
prior × evidence band
12-Month NOI Hold
0.93
spec parity verified
5-Year IRR Hit
0.76
Bayesian credible interval
Exit Value Floor
0.88
stress-tested at exit cap +75bps
Closed-Loop Feedback (every cycle compounds)
Every underwritten deal feeds back into the predictive market engine. Every NOI variance becomes a training signal. Every cap-rate miss tunes the sigma quality bar above. The intelligence layer is not a snapshot — it is a continuously-instrumented servo loop.
SPEC→
UNDERWRITE→
TEST→
MEASURE NOI VARIANCE→
TUNE↻